15/02/2017

Analysis of Mechanical Occupation

From the perspective of economic advance, the target of micro-monetary silver in October was the rebound trend of August and September, such as M1, M2, the layout and characteristics of credit, and the whole social financing origins, and the social capital needs to rise .

Corresponding to this, infrastructure, real estate investment data improved, we believe that both in the two quarter can be sustained Wenwen rebound trend. Infrastructure rebound and the previous government position, the NDRC project approval, borrowing, financing sources to improve the logical chain in line with the estimated third quarter of 2012, infrastructure projects will start in the second quarter of 2013, in recent months bonds, trust loans to compensate for the heavy volume The lack of borrowing to add, infrastructure projects funds should be able to implement. Real estate investment, since this year the developer capital chain improved significantly, but still adhere to the decline in real estate construction trend, compared with the previous real estate investment cycle lagged behind to close to a year, which mainly reflects the real estate developers expected future impact of the developers, but In the fast inventory to the scene, the future real estate construction rebound in the medium-term growth trend is relatively clear.

From the synchronization target, a lot of industrial data is now beginning to show signs of a rebound, such as power generation, steel, building materials, coal output growth rebounded, indicating the need to start is now transferred to the industrial company started to rise, the next two Month should see the inventory data to the good direction change. But because of the need to increase the intensity is not strong, as well as the occupational overcapacity more severe, to the inventory process can suffer twists and turns.

On the mechanical career, because the transfer of funds to the middle reaches of the career of about half a year lag, career in the second quarter of 2013 sales can be seen to improve, the economy improved. The fourth quarter of this year, the first quarter of next year, the occupational climate should not continue to deteriorate, three quarterly results of many companies is the growth rate low.

Mechanical sub-occupation, last month we have pointed out that the railway equipment sub-occupational trends and career is not the same as a whole, the next quarter of the railway equipment is only a boom of the mechanical sub-profession.

US durable goods orders in October, real estate data continues to improve, consumers are determined to return to four-year high, if the US politicians after concessions to prevent financial cliff problems, the 2013 US economic growth trend can be far ahead of other major economic booming.

Europe, the recent rebound in the future economy will continue to enter the slow aisle channel, after all, the European debt problems on the economy implicated in the short term can not get disposal.

On mechanical products, we will gradually begin to optimistic about the export of machinery products for the United States, the unique continuation of the positive for the US real estate shopping malls export of mechanical products, while exports in Europe will remain in the doldrums.

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